Probabilistic Analysis of Volcanic Hazards:
Current Methodologies and Vision for Future Efforts
A Workshop at the State University of New York at Buffalo 16-19 May, 2011
This workshop will bring experts in modeling, computing, and statistical analysis, together with field scientists, to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis. An additional outcome of this conference will be to define priorities for future research that are driven by the needs of stakeholders.
Generating hazard maps and/or probabilistic hazard maps for active or
potentially active volcanoes is recognized as a fundamental step towards the
mitigation of risk to vulnerable communities. The responsibility for generating
such maps most commonly lies with government institutions but in many cases
input from the academic community is either solicited or relied on. It is of
critical importance to understand the wide variety of methods that are currently
employed to generate such maps, and the respective philosophies on which they are based.
At the same time, modeling potential methods to ameliorate the hazard will assist
public officials as they plan mitigation strategies.
Increasingly, computational models of volcanic plumes and flows are used to gauge potential areas of inundation or tephra loading, and potential mitigation responses. These models range from simple but robust empirical relationships to stochastic application of complex fluid dynamical models. Although probabilistic maps have to be custom-built for each volcano, the geo-hazards community will benefit from a cross-fertilization of ideas, across disciplinarily boundaries and from a range of geographically and sociologically diverse applications.
An international slate of speakers will address a broad range of topics including:
- Methods of probabilistic analysis
- Difficulties of data glut from computer models
- Uncertainty in digital elevation models, and their evolution with time
- Prediction of extreme events and their consequences
- Communicating probabilities
Scientific Program We will begin on the afternoon of the 16th. There will be a selection of talks held each day. Confirmed speakers include:
- Susan Loughlin (British Geological Survey, Edinburgh)
- Chuck Connor (U. South Florida)
- Steve Self (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
- Willy Aspinall (tentative)
- Marcus Bursik (tentative)
- Laura Sandri (Insituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy)
- Thea Hincks (U. of Bristol)
- Claudia Furlan (Universita degli Studi di Padova)
- Puneet Singla (Buffalo)
- Elaine Spiller (Marquette)
- Gustavo Cordaba (U de Narino)
Poster Sessions will be held on Monday and Tuesday evenings;
to contribute a poster, upload a brief abstract
(150 words or less) at
poster upload .
On Thursday morning there will be a hands-on training session illustrating the use of computational tools such as TITAN2D or PUFF; this session may be particularly attractive for graduate students and post-doctoral fellows who are studying hazards. Be sure to indicate your interest in this session on the registration page.
Registration You can register here.
Venue Conference talks will be held in the Student Union Theater on the North Campus of the University at Buffalo. The Poster Session will be in the adjacent Student Union Flag Room. UB North Campus
Accommodations Rooms have been reserved at nearby hotels. Within walking distance or with a shuttle van are the Hotel Indigo, the Marriott, the Ramada Inn, and a Red Roof Inn; in downtown Buffalo is the Hyatt. Each of the hotels has registration deadlines for a group rate, on or around May 1. Mention that you are attending the UB Geohazards Conference for the group rate.
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This Workshop is sponsored by:
